Monte Prediction

A weekly challenge where you provide a million scenarios in eleven dimensions.

Weekly log-likelihood scores

December 16, 2024

name score
ElevenEspresso 5.6682
Joakim Arvidsson 4.9386
szitas_dot_juraj13 3.9425
at3325 3.5303
weirdsamples 3.0468
Alexey 2.6071
endacar808 1.9143
snoringkitty 1.6885
mturk24 1.4873
smooth_correlator 1.2851
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 1.2151
"petit chafariz" 1.1941
csharpconsultant 1.1386
Fred Viole 0.9076
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.7573
claudeshannon 0.7323
jeremy.og 0.7209
jeremy.og 0.6961
at_experimental 0.4095
tman7479 0.0500
Monte Carlos 0.0209
wonkenobi 0.0111

December 09, 2024

name score
ElevenEspresso 0.0240
claudeshannon 0.0194
jeremy.og 0.0192
jeremy.og 0.0188
mturk24 0.0150
"petit chafariz" 0.0115
Joakim Arvidsson 0.0059
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0014
weirdsamples 0.0007
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0005
at_experimental 0.0004
smooth_correlator 0.0004
wonkenobi 0.0003
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0000
Fred Viole 0.0000
Monte Carlos 0.0000
at3325 NaN

December 02, 2024

name score
szitas_dot_juraj13 15.0504
weirdsamples 13.1721
tman7479 12.4218
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 11.7204
snoringkitty 11.2044
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 5.4042
"petit chafariz" 5.1191
ElevenEspresso 4.6718
The_Noob_Old_Quant 4.3954
Fred Viole 4.2491
at_experimental 3.6348
smooth_correlator 3.5809
Joakim Arvidsson 3.2628
endacar808 3.1117
mturk24 2.8581
jeremy.og 2.4877
jeremy.og 2.4786
at3325 2.1122
claudeshannon 1.8422
Monte Carlos 0.3487
wonkenobi 0.1126

November 25, 2024

name score
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 25.1929
szitas_dot_juraj13 19.5233
Fred Viole 12.9101
weirdsamples 8.6325
"petit chafariz" 6.9846
csharpconsultant 5.9340
snoringkitty 5.8910
tman7479 5.2175
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 4.7787
endacar808 3.9903
thomaswcole 3.7111
at_experimental 3.6116
ElevenEspresso 3.4984
smooth_correlator 3.0522
Edward Ross 2.9793
Alexey 2.9100
claudeshannon 2.0646
at3325 2.0465
jeremy.og 2.0336
jeremy.og 1.9210
Joakim Arvidsson 0.9508
wonkenobi 0.0171
Monte Carlos 0.0002

November 18, 2024

name score
at3325 0.0339
ElevenEspresso 0.0329
Joakim Arvidsson 0.0307
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0243
bloopinator 0.0227
thomaswcole 0.0225
Alexey 0.0175
smooth_correlator 0.0156
jeremy.og 0.0148
mturk24 0.0146
jeremy.og 0.0140
"petit chafariz" 0.0134
endacar808 0.0126
claudeshannon 0.0086
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0072
weirdsamples 0.0048
wonkenobi 0.0026
at_experimental 0.0012
tman7479 0.0009
csharpconsultant 0.0004
Monte Carlos 0.0004
snoringkitty 0.0002

November 11, 2024

name score
smooth_correlator 0.0227
endacar808 0.0192
"petit chafariz" 0.0166
claudeshannon 0.0114
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0074
jeremy.og 0.0059
jeremy.og 0.0050
at_experimental 0.0024
ElevenEspresso 0.0024
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0009
thomaswcole 0.0009
at3325 0.0007
snoringkitty 0.0001
Fred Viole 0.0000
wonkenobi 0.0000
tman7479 0.0000
csharpconsultant 0.0000
bloopinator NaN
Joakim Arvidsson NaN

November 04, 2024

name score
szitas_dot_juraj13 1.1060
Fred Viole 0.9801
Alexey 0.8840
snoringkitty 0.8175
claudeshannon 0.7324
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.6626
endacar808 0.5825
thomaswcole 0.5813
mturk24 0.5702
"petit chafariz" 0.5637
jeremy.og 0.5529
at_experimental 0.5518
smooth_correlator 0.5445
jeremy.og 0.4788
bloopinator 0.4433
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.4329
ElevenEspresso 0.3492
at3325 0.3356
csharpconsultant 0.2190
Joakim Arvidsson 0.2011
weirdsamples 0.1700
Monte Carlos 0.0654
tman7479 0.0322
wonkenobi 0.0242
SPS_Hybrid_Strategy 0.0219

October 28, 2024

name score
at_experimental 1.4659
at3325 1.0755
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.8100
weirdsamples 0.7963
Black swan enjoyer 0.7743
Kiwi 0.7711
snoringkitty 0.6559
"petit chafariz" 0.5484
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.5065
ElevenEspresso 0.4912
bloopinator 0.4765
endacar808 0.4359
mturk24 0.3850
thomaswcole 0.3370
Fred Viole 0.3323
smooth_correlator 0.3285
Joakim Arvidsson 0.1448
csharpconsultant 0.0794
tman7479 0.0216
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0121
Monte Carlos 0.0093
wonkenobi 0.0044
Your Name 0.0000

October 21, 2024

name score
snoringkitty 2.0766
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 1.0531
csharpconsultant 0.8466
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.8396
smooth_correlator 0.7427
Black swan enjoyer 0.6797
Kiwi 0.6611
jeremy.og 0.6478
jeremy.og 0.6379
"petit chafariz" 0.5434
mturk24 0.4137
Joakim Arvidsson 0.4044
thomaswcole 0.3073
at3325 0.2766
tman7479 0.2407
weirdsamples 0.2403
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.1960
Fred Viole 0.1852
Carolus 0.0896
at_experimental 0.0638
Carolus 0.0562
wonkenobi 0.0556
Monte Carlos 0.0156

October 14, 2024

name score
tman7479 2.3514
at3325 2.1461
at_experimental 1.2431
csharpconsultant 1.2262
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 1.0939
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.9456
Kiwi 0.8034
smooth_correlator 0.5707
ElevenEspresso 0.5399
Black swan enjoyer 0.5037
"petit chafariz" 0.4081
bloopinator 0.3920
weirdsamples 0.3722
claudeshannon 0.2901
Joakim Arvidsson 0.2880
jeremy.og 0.2876
jeremy.og 0.2812
MR Unkn0wn 0.2789
mturk24 0.2592
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.2289
Fred Viole 0.1399
wonkenobi 0.1305
snoringkitty 0.0000

October 07, 2024

name score
tman7479 0.7349
Fred Viole 0.4339
csharpconsultant 0.3844
at_experimental 0.3567
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.2598
weirdsamples 0.2087
"petit chafariz" 0.1373
bloopinator 0.1191
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.1163
endacar808 0.1116
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.1058
Monte Carlos 0.1017
jeremy.og 0.0992
smooth_correlator 0.0958
jeremy.og 0.0932
mturk24 0.0812
ElevenEspresso 0.0800
Joakim Arvidsson 0.0676
Kiwi 0.0647
at3325 0.0556
Black swan enjoyer 0.0546
wonkenobi 0.0524
snoringkitty 0.0083
rroggio 0.0000

September 30, 2024

name score
csharpconsultant 1.1245
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.9921
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.6773
ElevenEspresso 0.4576
Kiwi 0.4566
at3325 0.4533
smooth_correlator 0.4413
"petit chafariz" 0.3935
snoringkitty 0.3729
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.3482
jeremy.og 0.3474
jeremy.og 0.3464
Black swan enjoyer 0.3294
mpugna 0.2939
Predict-o1-Matic 0.2862
thomaswcole 0.2215
weirdsamples 0.1942
Fred Viole 0.1465
tman7479 0.1115
wonkenobi 0.0959
at_experimental NaN

September 23, 2024

name score
szitas_dot_juraj13 1.3740
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 1.1217
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 1.1130
csharpconsultant 1.0732
Fred Viole 0.9751
snoringkitty 0.7445
tman7479 0.7294
at3325 0.7257
"petit chafariz" 0.7210
Monte Carlos 0.5986
Black swan enjoyer 0.4610
endacar808 0.3845
bloopinator 0.3493
weirdsamples 0.2717
smooth_correlator 0.2575
ElevenEspresso 0.2568
mturk24 0.2244
at_experimental 0.2045
wonkenobi 0.0574

September 16, 2024

name score
bloopinator 0.1058
Kiwi 0.0988
RAHS 0.0788
lbassetti 0.0783
"petit chafariz" 0.0744
Predictor 0.0690
thomaswcole 0.0475
Black swan enjoyer 0.0459
ElevenEspresso 0.0429
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0404
mturk24 0.0343
Monte Carlos 0.0167
at3325 0.0143
smooth_correlator 0.0092
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0077
weirdsamples 0.0070
Fred Viole 0.0005
wonkenobi 0.0002
snoringkitty 0.0002
at_experimental 0.0001
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0001
tman7479 0.0001
csharpconsultant 0.0000

September 09, 2024

name score
weirdsamples 0.0166
smooth_correlator 0.0119
Black swan enjoyer 0.0104
ElevenEspresso 0.0104
"petit chafariz" 0.0087
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0066
thomaswcole 0.0045
mturk24 0.0036
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0024
snoringkitty 0.0012
at3325 0.0006
Fred Viole 0.0005
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0002
bloopinator 0.0000
at_experimental 0.0000
wonkenobi 0.0000
tman7479 0.0000
csharpconsultant 0.0000

September 02, 2024

name score
szitas_dot_juraj13 18.1174
at3325 15.6096
tman7479 11.8719
at_experimental 8.2686
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 5.2412
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 4.5709
vms 4.5513
"petit chafariz" 3.1250
weirdsamples 2.9707
Fred Viole 2.7196
thomaswcole 2.1022
jeremy.og 1.7341
jeremy.og 1.6670
mturk24 1.5298
smooth_correlator 1.4254
ElevenEspresso 1.0803
braden_dot_abshire 0.9681
snoringkitty 0.7923
wonkenobi 0.1716
csharpconsultant 0.0000
bloopinator NaN

August 26, 2024

name score
tman7479 24.4058
weirdsamples 21.2314
szitas_dot_juraj13 18.9661
csharpconsultant 17.0051
Crunchy Granola 13.4853
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 13.2358
at_experimental 12.8880
mturk24 9.3218
Fred Viole 8.9323
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 7.3485
at3325 6.0518
thomaswcole 2.6950
ElevenEspresso 2.0244
snoringkitty 0.4861
wonkenobi 0.0483
bloopinator NaN

August 19, 2024

name score
at3325 0.6151
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.1747
thomaswcole 0.0857
"petit chafariz" 0.0772
smooth_correlator 0.0638
monteprediction1 0.0519
leo 0.0439
ElevenEspresso 0.0314
Fred Viole 0.0281
weirdsamples 0.0179
snoringkitty 0.0164
at_experimental 0.0157
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0151
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0124
tman7479 0.0091
wonkenobi 0.0036
csharpconsultant 0.0001
bloopinator NaN

August 12, 2024

name score
at_experimental 141.7196
csharpconsultant 117.4243
szitas_dot_juraj13 45.5561
tman7479 42.7453
weirdsamples 20.7277
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 8.6711
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 8.6629
at3325 5.4601
leo 4.7060
monteprediction1 4.6632
snoringkitty 4.5972
Fred Viole 4.4552
"petit chafariz" 3.7488
smooth_correlator 1.3844
ElevenEspresso 1.3653
TIA Labs LLC 1.0862
wonkenobi 0.3910
bloopinator NaN

August 05, 2024

name score
ElevenEspresso 0.0020
"petit chafariz" 0.0019
thomaswcole 0.0010
smooth_correlator 0.0010
weirdsamples 0.0008
wonkenobi 0.0007
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0004
snoringkitty 0.0002
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0001
at3325 0.0001
tman7479 0.0000
bloopinator 0.0000
leo 0.0000
Fred Viole 0.0000
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0000
monteprediction1 0.0000
at_experimental 0.0000
csharpconsultant 0.0000

July 29, 2024

name score
at3325 9.7819
monteprediction1 2.9974
weirdsamples 2.6343
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 2.2961
szitas_dot_juraj13 2.0039
Captain Nemo 1.9062
thomaswcole 1.1147
ElevenEspresso 0.8341
at_experimental 0.3231
csharpconsultant 0.2259
Fred Viole 0.1514
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.1197
leo 0.1059
wonkenobi 0.0975
smooth_correlator 0.0036
bloopinator 0.0000
tman7479 0.0000

July 22, 2024

name score
at3325 0.4835
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.1736
monteprediction1 0.1629
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.1338
leo 0.1197
Captain Nemo 0.1098
"petit chafariz" 0.1067
thomaswcole 0.1062
snoringkitty 0.1061
ElevenEspresso 0.1030
Original gangster 0.0897
at_experimental 0.0812
csharpconsultant 0.0738
smooth_correlator 0.0630
wonkenobi 0.0360
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0252
weirdsamples 0.0251
Fred Viole 0.0096
bloopinator 0.0000
tman7479 0.0000

July 15, 2024

name score
weirdsamples 0.6668
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.3394
at3325 0.2739
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2732
thomaswcole 0.1945
ElevenEspresso 0.1835
smooth_correlator 0.1182
Fred Viole 0.0082
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0024
bloopinator 0.0000

July 08, 2024

name score
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 2.6934
monteprediction1 2.3992
csharpconsultant 1.2982
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.8369
"petit chafariz" 0.7931
weirdsamples 0.7434
leo 0.6950
thomaswcole 0.6903
Captain Nemo 0.5085
Fred Viole 0.2224
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.1858
snoringkitty 0.1368
smooth_correlator 0.1213
wonkenobi 0.0609
tman7479 0.0305
bloopinator 0.0000
at3325 NaN

July 01, 2024

name score
csharpconsultant 60.6975
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 17.0537
at3325 15.9288
leo 11.5425
Fred Viole 11.3954
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 9.5611
thomaswcole 2.8151
Yaa-man 2.5300
tman7479 2.4942
szitas_dot_juraj13 1.7362
Captain Nemo 1.6507
weirdsamples 0.6568
smooth_correlator 0.6173
snoringkitty 0.1498
bloopinator NaN

June 24, 2024

name score
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 126.7191
Fred Viole 50.6860
leo 32.1889
at3325 22.0642
szitas_dot_juraj13 16.5887
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 14.6636
snoringkitty 9.4377
petit chafariz 6.9116
smooth_correlator 6.1261
thomaswcole 4.8569
Lazy Copycat 2.9772
Captain Nemo 2.3308
weirdsamples 1.8623
bloopinator 0.0008

June 17, 2024

name score
at3325 2.0432
csharpconsultant 0.6934
thomaswcole 0.3751
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2639
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.2062
DarkPanther 0.1795
Original gangster 0.1619
Captain Nemo 0.1583
weirdsamples 0.1078
bloopinator 0.0000
tman7479 0.0000

June 10, 2024

name score
at3325 2.6222
thomaswcole 0.2914
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2863
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.2323
Fred Viole 0.1022
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.0027
bloopinator 0.0001

June 03, 2024

name score
at3325 10.6882
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 5.0842
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 5.0750
thomaswcole 0.9834
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.8754
Fred Viole 0.4058
bloopinator 0.0001

May 27, 2024

name score
Fred Viole 2.0328
thomaswcole 0.7259
at3325 0.6660
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.3500
szitas_dot_juraj13 0.0855
bloopinator NaN

May 20, 2024

name score
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 17.4045
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 5.9011
at3325 3.8743
weirdsamples 1.7515
thomaswcole 1.0209
Original gangster 0.9978
Fred Viole 0.7995
bloopinator 0.0002
2And20_V2 0.0001

May 13, 2024

name score
szitas_dot_juraj13 7.1056
weirdsamples 7.1052
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 3.6058
Fred Viole 2.9421
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 1.1641
James Don 0.8164
thomaswcole 0.7999
GFN 0.6635
at3325 0.6433
"petit chafariz" 0.0026

May 06, 2024

name score
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 2.4913
Joakim Arvidsson 2.0177
at3325 1.6083
thomaswcole 0.4935
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 0.2522
Fred Viole 0.1982

April 29, 2024

name score
leo 20.5978
ovvo_dot_financial_dot_systems 15.6176
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 7.2685
at3325 4.5270
thomaswcole 2.5231
Original gangster 2.2318
Fred Viole 1.1285
Joakim Arvidsson 0.8999
"petit chafariz" 0.1890

April 22, 2024

name score
at3325 0.0703
thomaswcole 0.0515
Joakim Arvidsson 0.0239
Fred Viole 0.0197
Original gangster 0.0114
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0025
"petit chafariz" 0.0004
leo 0.0001
Outmaane 0.0000

April 15, 2024

name score
nubcoder 11.5143
Fred Viole 2.8939
Original gangster 1.1607
Joakim Arvidsson 1.0352
thomaswcole 0.5985
"petit chafariz" 0.2671
Outmaane 0.0006
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0000

April 08, 2024

name score
at3325 0.3978
thomaswcole 0.2357
Joakim Arvidsson 0.1882
Kiwi 0.1616
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.0459
Fred Viole 0.0133
"petit chafariz" 0.0012

April 01, 2024

name score
Fred Viole 9.1136
rlang_example 6.2536
vlad_dot_tasca 4.6213
Kiwi 4.1649
Original gangster 1.5349
b_dot_anant 1.2320
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.3193
"petit chafariz" 0.0001

March 25, 2024

name score
Kiwi 0.9281
Original gangster 0.5819
trs6946 0.4841
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2884
david_dot_russell_dot_hopkins 0.2248

March 18, 2024

name score
leo 15.6965
Kiwi 1.2389
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2834

March 11, 2024

name score
abdul_dot_emad0 0.9019
Original gangster 0.6853
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.1841

March 04, 2024

name score
Original gangster 2.2424
saffar488 1.5092

February 26, 2024

name score
"petit chafariz" 0.0002

February 19, 2024

name score
"petit chafariz" 0.0034

February 12, 2024

name score
dtello 1.0038
Shrinkage Oracle of Omaha 0.2897
"petit chafariz" 0.0054

February 05, 2024

name score
langchain101 0.3166

January 29, 2024

name score
Original gangster 0.2187
nobody 0.1636
ladsf987asdf87as987afsd 0.1502
empirical 0.1497